Fri, Dec 23, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 03 | 116 | 126 |
| WSH | 110 | 110 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:22WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:46WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Conor Sheary, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 3:49WSHNic DowdAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 9:59WPGKevin StenlundAssists: Karson Kuhlman, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 19:00WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:00WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15WPGKarson Kuhlman: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:21WSHErik Gustafsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:43WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 13:22WPGMark Scheifele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:46WSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Kuhlman2:22
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois5:05
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Eyssimont – Barron3:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois7:37
xG 0.57–0.67 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo4:19
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Heinola7:38
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:00
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas9:38
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Milano7:40
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Johansson – Aube-Kubel6:58
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel3:04
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Gustafsson8:27
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk12:25
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk2:14
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).