Fri, Dec 23, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 18 | 08 | 224 |
| DAL | 09 | 113 | 314 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04MTLJake EvansPPAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Jordan Harris · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 2:24MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Arber Xhekaj · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 15:19DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 2:27DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 15:00DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:43DALJoel KivirantaENUnassisted · Snap, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:06DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39MTLMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P2 13:53MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:32MTLMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:50MTLChris Wideman: Delaying game2 min
- P3 13:27MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00MTLChris Wideman: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Dach – Caufield10:05
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Evans – Richard – Pezzetta6:05
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:35
xG 0.08–0.34 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki9:35
xG 0.22–0.85 (20%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Xhekaj14:02
xG 0.85–0.76 (53%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Harris12:30
xG 0.08–0.55 (13%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Guhle14:12
xG 0.15–0.82 (16%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:46
xG 1.08–0.26 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Seguin – Dellandrea – Kiviranta9:30
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Marchment – Johnston9:55
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Tufte3:19
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell14:22
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist13:55
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:29
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).