Fri, Dec 23, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 213 | 39 | 530 |
| EDM | 213 | 013 | 07 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42EDMDerek RyanAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 19:55EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 0:41VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:33VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 12:25VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 17:19VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:19VANBo HorvatENAssists: Elias Pettersson, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:38VANLuke Schenn: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:40EDMDylan Holloway: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:03VANLane Pederson: Holding2 min
- P2 16:37EDMDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:18VANCurtis Lazar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPederson – Pettersson – Kuzmenko9:19
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman6:54
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Mikheyev9:40
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Miller – Lazar – Garland10:16
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes15:30
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stillman10:50
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson13:23
xG 0.48–1.02 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:10
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin9:21
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway4:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – Yamamoto8:29
xG 0.08–0.60 (12%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak13:27
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Niemelainen – Bouchard8:58
xG 0.46–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:01
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).