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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 23, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

St. Louis Blues 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Vegas Golden Knights

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.

VGK winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL0631418011429
VGK1821416042532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:22VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Michael Amadio · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:39STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:29VGKMark StoneAssists: Michael Amadio, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:17STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P2 8:17STLJustin FaulkAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:34VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. P3 10:45STLNoel AcciariAssists: Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–3
  8. P3 18:24VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.22 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Robert Thomas stopped
  2. 2. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
  3. 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
  4. 4. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
  5. 5. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
  6. 6. VGK Chandler Stephenson scored
  7. 7. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
  8. 8. VGK Mark Stone scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:18STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
  2. P1 17:45VGKJake Leschyshyn: Holding2 min
  3. P2 5:19VGKPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 5:28VGKBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 17:22STLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
49% to win51% to win
← STL attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Thomas
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLVGK
29Shots on goal32
2.7Expected goals3.9
57Shot attempts53
21Faceoffs won25
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
23Hits23
13Blocked shots17
3Giveaways10
13Takeaways22

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:28

    xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1

  2. O'Reilly – Schenn – Saad4:15

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Pitlick – Brown – Toropchenko4:35

    xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  4. Schenn – Barbashev – Acciari9:18

    xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBortuzzo – Mikkola10:12

    xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1

  2. Faulk – Krug15:58

    xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0

  3. Leddy – Parayko19:08

    xG 0.30–1.13 (21%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. bestKessel – Smith – Karlsson11:36

    xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  2. Stone – Stephenson – Amadio12:44

    xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0

  3. Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg – Dorofeyev6:16

    xG 0.01–0.03 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Carrier – Kolesar – Roy9:17

    xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcNabb – Miromanov14:54

    xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0

  2. Pietrangelo – Hague16:03

    xG 0.79–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1

  3. Martinez – Pachal12:15

    xG 0.81–0.61 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 3.9 xGSTL 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #72 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.00 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 8% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.

VGK winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).