Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 014 | 16 | 127 | 04 | 0 | 251 |
| OTT | 011 | 210 | 05 | 06 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:11OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:33BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:37OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 16:27BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Alex DeBrincat scored
- 2. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 4. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 5. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 6. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:29BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:04OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59BOSTrent Frederic: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:14OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Smith – Nosek7:49
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:58
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic4:48
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak7:04
xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy14:34
xG 1.33–0.16 (89%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton11:33
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:55
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle13:38
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Gambrell – Kelly – Lucchini7:19
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic6:30
xG 0.00–0.48 (1%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto12:40
xG 0.86–1.38 (38%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson17:14
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot2:14
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chabot – Sanderson2:23
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).