Fri, Apr 14, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 016 | 311 | 29 | 536 |
| CBJ | 18 | 115 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Tim Berni, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:36BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:35BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:01BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:24CBJTyler AngleAssists: Andrew Peeke, Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:03BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:27BUFPeyton KrebsUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 1:59CBJHunter McKown: Holding2 min
- P2 5:33BUFRiley Stillman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:12
xG 1.44–0.52 (73%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Greenway6:57
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Krebs – Quinn – Peterka6:46
xG 1.28–0.65 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Rousek7:01
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Dahlin3:24
xG 1.15–0.38 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power9:39
xG 1.04–0.38 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Clague – Stillman6:50
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Foudy – Angle – Pyyhtia2:22
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Foudy – Johnson – McKown13:30
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Luoto10:50
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Luoto – Angle – Pyyhtia5:52
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther4:27
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Berni2:26
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Peeke – Svozil4:28
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).