Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 215 | 17 | 430 |
| NYR | 013 | 07 | 012 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:44WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 17:01WSHErik GustafssonAssists: Conor Sheary, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 19:23WSHLars EllerAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 16:58WSHConor ShearyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:47NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:08NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 12:35WSHNick Jensen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 0:32WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:01NYRJulien Gauthier: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:02WSHConor Sheary: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:04WSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:33WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Mantha – Milano8:23
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Johansson – Aube-Kubel9:12
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome9:46
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Protas9:04
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen15:34
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk11:46
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev11:32
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Chytil – Lafrenière3:03
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière5:38
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Gauthier5:34
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Kravtsov8:50
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller13:40
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Harpur – Schneider11:57
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:58
xG 0.44–0.80 (35%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).