Tue, Dec 27, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 04 | 05 | 121 |
| NYI | 114 | 320 | 18 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:13PITPierre-Olivier JosephUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 0:50NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Hudson Fasching, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:32NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 16:42NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 3:33NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:11PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P1 9:50NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Interference2 min
- P3 9:20PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:57PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Carter – Blueger – McGinn2:27
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Blueger – Heinen – O'Connor5:32
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:03
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:21
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pettersson – Joseph2:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin4:17
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Joseph3:17
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Cizikas – Pageau9:04
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:58
xG 0.98–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Bailey – Fasching – Barzal3:51
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching2:27
xG 0.17–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Wotherspoon12:41
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Aho14:11
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Dobson – Romanov16:12
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 17–16goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).