Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 14 | 117 | 333 |
| NSH | 08 | 213 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:56NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 2:15DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:15NSHYakov TreninSHAssists: Cole Smith, Jeremy Lauzon · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:07DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:39NSHDante Fabbro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:02NSHColton Sissons: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:44DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min
- P2 0:39NSHTommy Novak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:48DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P2 6:41NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 12:15DALNils Lundkvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:47NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:20NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Marchment – Johnston7:39
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Seguin – Dellandrea – Kiviranta5:40
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Olofsson6:19
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:24
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell11:24
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Miller9:22
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist13:05
xG 0.57–1.02 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Trenin3:53
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Parssinen3:11
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith2:04
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Jeannot – Glass8:52
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier11:28
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro11:14
xG 0.62–0.90 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi15:11
xG 0.29–1.21 (19%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).