Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 17 | 110 | 428 |
| WPG | 18 | 013 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 6:33MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 10:03WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 8:55MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 17:55MINSammy WalkerENAssists: Matt Boldy, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:38WPGDylan Samberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:53MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:44MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:44WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:44MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:48
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Dewar – Beckman8:54
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Walker – Boldy8:12
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel12:11
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Addison14:35
xG 0.26–0.28 (49%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon15:47
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:26
xG 0.77–1.10 (41%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Dubois16:15
xG 1.10–0.64 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Kuhlman10:54
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Barron6:16
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eyssimont – Gustafsson5:56
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey13:59
xG 0.77–0.57 (58%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Morrissey – Pionk4:41
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Capobianco4:01
xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).