Wed, Dec 28, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 3, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 115 | 115 | 344 |
| SEA | 114 | 111 | 06 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Dillon Dube, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 18:45SEARyan DonatoAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 1:14SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:39CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:00CGYJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:48CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:55SEAYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:27SEACarson Soucy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:50SEADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:44SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Dube11:33
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:43
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau10:51
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka8:54
xG 0.19–0.44 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov9:55
xG 1.00–0.39 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:33
xG 1.22–1.22 (50%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
- Tanev – Weegar15:54
xG 0.58–1.18 (33%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:27
xG 1.02–0.61 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie6:10
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Donato10:19
xG 0.05–0.40 (12%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:14
xG 0.24–0.85 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak12:25
xG 1.23–0.62 (66%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:01
xG 1.39–1.23 (53%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Schultz – Dunn2:03
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).