Thu, Dec 29, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 07 | 17 | 121 |
| NYI | 013 | 213 | 010 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:12NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Zach Parise, Hudson Fasching · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 16:39NYIMathew BarzalPPGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 19:38CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Marcus Bjork, Johnny Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:06CBJAndrew Peeke: Interference2 min
- P1 9:53NYIHudson Fasching: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:05CBJSean Kuraly: Interference2 min
- P2 14:07NYISebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:31CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Interference2 min
- P2 15:31NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Meyer – Foudy – Sillinger4:06
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Marchenko – Johnson5:36
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson7:33
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Roslovic – Bemstrom7:11
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gavrikov – Bjork9:43
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni9:39
xG 0.05–0.50 (9%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Peeke – Boqvist8:51
xG 0.18–0.72 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Fasching2:16
xG 0.66–0.06 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier7:23
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Cizikas – Pageau3:24
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Cizikas – Barzal2:39
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Aho8:53
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Pulock – Wotherspoon8:15
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov8:20
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).