Thu, Dec 29, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 115 | 010 | 318 | 443 |
| MIN | 19 | 05 | 010 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Wyatt Johnston · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:09MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 3:29DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 13:26DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:58DALTyler SeguinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:55MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:55MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:55DALMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:28DALWyatt Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46MINJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:58DALJoel Kiviranta: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:01MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:58MINMathew Dumba: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Marchment – Johnston11:28
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Seguin – Dellandrea – Kiviranta8:40
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Olofsson8:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:15
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lundkvist15:59
xG 1.28–0.67 (66%)attempts 20–26goals 1–0
- Suter – Miller11:06
xG 0.28–0.15 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:11
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:25
xG 0.34–0.29 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Walker – Boldy8:45
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Dewar – Beckman7:22
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel13:59
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton11:47
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Dumba – Middleton2:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Merrill – Middleton2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).