Thu, Dec 29, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 010 | 26 | 11 | 426 |
| SJS | 112 | 111 | 15 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:25PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 8:29SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Timo Meier, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 0:52SJSKevin LabancAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 5:57PHIOwen TippettAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nick Seeler · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:55PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 1:10PHITony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.31 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:57PHICam York: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:48SJSNico Sturm: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min
- P3 14:27PHIJoel Farabee: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Farabee9:16
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee2:48
xG 0.09–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost9:54
xG 0.14–0.46 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison7:31
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York16:03
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen12:14
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Sanheim – DeAngelo16:45
xG 0.53–1.15 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich5:57
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Svechnikov – Sturm8:54
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Hertl – Labanc10:54
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 2–1
- Couture – Meier – Barabanov12:45
xG 0.46–0.81 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek13:05
xG 1.16–0.18 (87%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Harrington – Ferraro15:18
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Megna16:57
xG 0.14–0.54 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).