Fri, Dec 30, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 7, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 416 | 210 | 16 | 732 |
| SEA | 08 | 215 | 015 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:16EDMKlim KostinAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 3:55EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 9:58EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 1:50SEADaniel SprongAssists: Morgan Geekie, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 5:33EDMKlim KostinAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 6:35EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–1
- P2 7:33SEABrandon TanevAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.16 xG6–2
- P3 10:43EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:01SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17EDMKlim Kostin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:31SEAVince Dunn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:31EDMDylan Holloway: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:57SEAAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 7:36EDMKlim Kostin: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:36EDMKlim Kostin: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:36SEAJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Yamamoto – McLeod10:19
xG 0.66–0.41 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:22
xG 0.58–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Ryan – Hamblin – Holloway6:00
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin10:52
xG 0.27–0.42 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:34
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 18–19goals 4–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:26
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Niemelainen – Bouchard10:43
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:07
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Gourde – Tanev6:59
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg4:00
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Donato – Sprong – Geekie5:48
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn18:56
xG 0.92–0.80 (54%)attempts 19–24goals 1–2
- Soucy – Borgen13:07
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak13:34
xG 0.47–0.75 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).