Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 212 | 08 | 233 |
| WSH | 29 | 313 | 418 | 940 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32WSHErik GustafssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 4:32WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Nic Dowd · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 4:02MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:31WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 9:06WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 12:39MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 19:21WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.29 xG2–5
- P3 1:22WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 5:31WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.09 xG2–7
- P3 15:43WSHAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–8
- P3 16:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–9
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:20MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:54WSHMartin Fehérváry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:54MTLChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 3:18WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:31MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41MTLChris Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31MTLBrendan Gallagher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:18WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Pezzetta8:00
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield12:37
xG 1.09–1.22 (47%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:20
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Anderson – Drouin9:48
xG 0.17–0.95 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Harris15:15
xG 1.02–1.36 (43%)attempts 18–17goals 0–2
- Edmundson – Barron11:50
xG 0.60–1.03 (37%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Wideman – Xhekaj14:23
xG 0.25–1.53 (14%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas9:48
xG 1.97–0.32 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Eller – Johansson – Snively6:15
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Sheary3:00
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary5:42
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk13:24
xG 1.29–0.45 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Irwin – Fehérváry14:01
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Orlov – Jensen14:56
xG 1.59–1.15 (58%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).