Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 18 | 17 | 224 |
| CGY | 013 | 311 | 06 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:21CGYElias LindholmAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:32CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 14:17CGYMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Chris Tanev, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 15:28VANSheldon DriesAssists: Conor Garland · Bat, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 4:06VANElias PetterssonAssists: Bo Horvat, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:41VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:18CGYBlake Coleman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:01CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:25CGYNoah Hanifin: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:00CGYMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:30VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Lockwood – Studnicka5:19
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko5:54
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Lockwood – Pettersson2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Lazar6:26
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes14:15
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Myers – Bear2:07
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson13:03
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane8:19
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube9:06
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka2:52
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau12:17
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar14:41
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:24
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
- Stone – Zadorov8:47
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).