Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 05 | 17 | 217 |
| EDM | 09 | 011 | 112 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44WPGNeal PionkPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 4:29EDMKlim KostinAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:55WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Kristian Reichel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:15EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P1 7:07WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44EDMCody Ceci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:50WPGVille Heinola: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:36WPGKarson Kuhlman: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:33EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:36WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Reichel6:54
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Harkins – Reichel – Gustafsson3:08
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Scheifele – Kuhlman8:34
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois4:51
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk5:07
xG 0.37–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – Heinola7:06
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:27
xG 0.29–1.11 (21%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:26
xG 1.22–0.14 (90%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin9:22
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod5:40
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Holloway5:18
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak16:17
xG 1.27–0.77 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Bouchard – Broberg9:08
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:08
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).