Mon, Jan 2, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 215 | 06 | 328 |
| COL | 19 | 09 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:02VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:14VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:46VGKNicolas RoyGWGAssists: William Carrier, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 11:07COLMikko RantanenAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:00VGKPhil Kessel: Holding2 min
- P1 9:58VGKBrayden Pachal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:58COLAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:58VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:09COLCale Makar: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:09VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:07COLAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
- P2 16:06VGKByron Froese: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:30VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 14:14VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Amadio11:02
xG 1.10–0.23 (83%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy7:12
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- Kessel – Smith – Karlsson9:41
xG 0.55–0.37 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Froese – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg5:55
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – McNabb3:08
xG 0.75–0.09 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak11:00
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hutton – Pachal9:50
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:40
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Kaut3:34
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Malgin – Newhook6:50
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Englund3:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:22
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar16:00
xG 0.53–1.20 (31%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).