Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 04 | 09 | 022 |
| OTT | 010 | 315 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:59OTTDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 7:00OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 11:31OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 16:41OTTAustin WatsonENAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:10CBJErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:08CBJMarcus Bjork: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:20CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:50CBJKent Johnson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45CBJMarcus Bjork: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:21OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:46CBJTim Berni: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:56OTTNick Holden: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Foudy5:55
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Robinson – Marchenko – Sillinger3:23
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Laine – Johnson9:09
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Bemstrom10:22
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Berni2:57
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni10:51
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Bayreuther – Bjork2:58
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:32
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Kelly – Lucchini – Stützle2:20
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:26
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic4:57
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom11:15
xG 1.14–0.45 (72%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub16:04
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson9:38
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).