Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 014 | 111 | 110 | 235 |
| WPG | 010 | 16 | 29 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:50WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Mark Scheifele · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 19:00CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 10:22WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 11:58CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 14:20WPGSam GagnerGWGAssists: Ville Heinola, Dylan Samberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:58CGYNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:10WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:48CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:21CGYMichael Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:52WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 3:11CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P3 17:08CGYTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:45
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Ruzicka – Zohorna5:56
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube9:33
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau9:44
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov6:53
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Andersson2:40
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:51
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Connor – Dubois4:59
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron6:50
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Reichel4:44
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Scheifele – Kuhlman6:53
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Heinola5:09
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Heinola2:58
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk10:46
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).