Tue, Jan 3, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 013 | 310 | 429 |
| CHI | 112 | 06 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50CHISeth JonesPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:24TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 7:11TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 10:14TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:54TBLNick PaulENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:55TBLIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:37TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 15:41TBLZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:16CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P2 13:07TBLIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:03CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:36CHIReese Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:48CHIBoris Katchouk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:03CHIAlex Stalock: Interference2 min
- P3 17:52TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Paul – Colton10:05
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel7:33
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel2:12
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli5:19
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak13:55
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev5:25
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman9:27
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Raddysh – Kurashev7:59
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Katchouk – Johnson5:45
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Domi – Lafferty3:53
xG 0.02–0.28 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi7:13
xG 0.01–0.74 (1%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Mitchell6:33
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Murphy – Phillips8:40
xG 0.38–0.99 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- McCabe – Jones12:49
xG 0.27–1.08 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).