Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 015 | 210 | 05 | 230 |
| LAK | 110 | 112 | 113 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58LAKRasmus KupariAssists: Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:31DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:13LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Quinton Byfield · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 9:09DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 9:25LAKAdrian KempePPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:36LAKCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:36DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:44DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:19LAKBlake Lizotte: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:20DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:59
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Benn – Marchment – Johnston10:14
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Olofsson9:24
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Seguin – Dellandrea – Kiviranta7:27
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell14:48
xG 1.31–0.91 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Heiskanen2:12
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist13:59
xG 0.17–0.52 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:32
xG 0.72–0.33 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo12:15
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Kupari5:53
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Fiala – Vilardi – Lizotte8:42
xG 0.64–0.86 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi13:15
xG 1.00–0.31 (76%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Edler – Walker11:05
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson18:00
xG 0.53–0.61 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).