Wed, Jan 4, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 210 | 311 | 527 |
| DET | 010 | 011 | 112 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:17NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 16:20NJDNico HischierPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 1:51NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Alexander Holtz, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 6:40NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Miles Wood, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 13:59NJDJack HughesAssists: Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–0
- P3 18:00DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:58NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40DETJake Walman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38DETJake Walman: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:43NJDBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Tatar – Haula – Hughes11:27
xG 0.71–0.67 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Boqvist2:47
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Sharangovich – Mercer2:22
xG 0.01–0.04 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wood – Boqvist – Zetterlund5:30
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smith – Siegenthaler2:40
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Graves2:02
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Graves18:10
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Rasmussen11:20
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Veleno – Soderblom11:10
xG 0.76–0.21 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Copp – Berggren – Raymond11:35
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Fabbri – Suter11:12
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider15:18
xG 1.33–0.53 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Hronek19:22
xG 0.78–0.63 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Maatta – Oesterle17:16
xG 0.69–0.60 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).