Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 312 | 113 | 431 |
| MTL | 04 | 07 | 17 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:43NYRChris KreiderSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 12:28NYRBraden SchneiderGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vitali Kravtsov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 13:27NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 14:46MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 18:50NYRFilip ChytilENAssists: Adam Fox, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:57NYRVitali Kravtsov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:44NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:17MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:28MTLJoel Armia: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:50MTLCole Caufield: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Chytil – Lafrenière9:51
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Kravtsov11:45
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Gauthier8:12
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko12:31
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren18:00
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller14:46
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Harpur – Schneider12:39
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Armia – Evans11:21
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield16:01
xG 0.45–0.52 (47%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský10:08
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Drouin – Richard – Pezzetta7:14
xG 0.04–0.26 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris17:53
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj10:04
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Savard – Edmundson18:25
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).