Thu, Jan 5, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 27 | 211 | 525 |
| CAR | 118 | 221 | 028 | 367 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41CARPaul StastnyPPAssists: Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:29NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 0:35CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Brett Pesce, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 2:47NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Juuso Parssinen · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 9:54CARJordan StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 11:55NSHCody GlassAssists: Mikael Granlund, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 5:06NSHMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:57NSHColton SissonsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:10NSHMikael Granlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:25CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P1 19:00CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Embellishment2 min
- P2 7:13NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 17:54CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:35NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Sissons – Parssinen6:48
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot7:14
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Jankowski7:20
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass8:44
xG 0.50–0.77 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Josi15:16
xG 0.82–0.92 (47%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier12:46
xG 0.64–0.79 (45%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
- McKeown – Lauzon9:11
xG 0.14–1.34 (10%)attempts 6–22goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Necas – Svechnikov10:28
xG 1.41–0.67 (68%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:57
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis7:53
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stepan – Kotkaniemi7:35
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:28
xG 2.03–0.28 (88%)attempts 34–13goals 0–2
- Skjei – Pesce15:40
xG 0.89–0.65 (58%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield10:06
xG 0.76–0.77 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).