Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Seattle Kraken 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 03 | 412 | 111 | 526 |
| TOR | 09 | 112 | 06 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:02SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:54TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:08SEAVince DunnGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:50SEAJared McCannAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:25SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jordan Eberle, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 2:57SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:24SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:17SEAJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 5:30TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51SEAYanni Gourde: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 0:26TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 14:42SEAJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSprong – Tanev – Geekie6:52
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – McCann7:14
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:28
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers10:48
xG 0.17–0.76 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:19
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Soucy – Borgen10:03
xG 0.32–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak13:54
xG 0.17–1.25 (12%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews9:04
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Holmberg5:10
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Kampf3:21
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf4:22
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly11:05
xG 1.10–0.18 (86%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Rielly – Sandin3:08
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Liljegren2:32
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).