Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
St. Louis Blues 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 17 | 37 | 519 |
| NJD | 014 | 210 | 115 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:47STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:51NJDJack HughesAssists: Damon Severson, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 8:47NJDJack HughesAssists: Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 16:27STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Brandon Saad, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 2:27STLBrandon SaadAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Noel Acciari · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:53STLRobert ThomasPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 12:09NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 19:17STLRobert ThomasENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:18STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:21NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P3 5:30STLNoel Acciari: Interference2 min
- P3 9:12NJDDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02STLTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov6:33
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Barbashev10:43
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Leivo – Acciari – Neighbours9:02
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:38
xG 0.29–0.42 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola13:12
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Leddy – Faulk14:11
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
- Faulk – Mikkola2:05
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Haula – Hughes11:56
xG 0.92–0.17 (84%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier9:14
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer7:12
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Holtz7:38
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Graves11:50
xG 0.78–0.36 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl8:07
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Graves3:37
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).