Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 416 | 28 | 637 |
| CBJ | 18 | 18 | 011 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:51WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nick Jensen, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:15WSHNicolas Aube-KubelUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 12:59CBJGavin BayreutherAssists: Adam Boqvist, Emil Bemstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:20WSHMartin FehérváryGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Alexander Alexeyev · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:57WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Anthony Mantha, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 6:41WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dylan Strome, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–2
- P3 13:05WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:21CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:21WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:49WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:00CBJTim Berni: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:11CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Milano – Strome9:47
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Mantha – Hathaway – Protas8:58
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Johansson – Aube-Kubel12:25
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary12:51
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk13:58
xG 1.01–0.67 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen16:50
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Fehérváry – Alexeyev16:15
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoudy – Marchenko – Sillinger9:27
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Bemstrom – Johnson10:51
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Meyer11:21
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Laine15:33
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni15:29
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Bayreuther – Boqvist14:40
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke16:06
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).