Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 211 | 07 | 222 |
| EDM | 218 | 29 | 011 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:40EDMKailer YamamotoSHAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:42NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 8:34EDMDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 15:17EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 19:07NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:13NYIParker Wotherspoon: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:57NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:37EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:37NYIAatu Räty: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:11NYIRyan Pulock: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Cizikas – Barzal10:06
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Parise – Pageau – Beauvillier8:28
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Räty5:28
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Fasching10:18
xG 0.10–0.66 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov11:58
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Pulock – Romanov2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pulock – Wotherspoon3:27
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl11:35
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- McDavid – Yamamoto – Kostin11:40
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway3:16
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Janmark – Puljujarvi – McLeod5:11
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg5:28
xG 1.00–0.11 (90%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:23
xG 1.01–0.23 (82%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Barrie – Broberg2:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).