Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 17 | 012 | 232 |
| VAN | 013 | 319 | 111 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:49COLSamuel GirardAssists: Andreas Englund, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 13:15VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:14VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 15:48VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:24VANJ.T. MillerENAssists: Elias Pettersson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:01COLCale Makar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:38VANAndrei Kuzmenko: Interference2 min
- P1 15:12COLJ.T. Compher: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:56VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:59COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:58COLMartin Kaut: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:31VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P2 11:52COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:15COLAndrew Cogliano: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:17COLBrad Hunt: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:44VANBrock Boeser: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:16VANJack Studnicka: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:11COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:39
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor2:13
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Kaut – Newhook2:05
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Englund – Girard2:12
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Hunt – Englund4:42
xG 0.01–0.04 (17%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:51
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Boeser – Mikheyev8:21
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Pettersson – Kuzmenko9:14
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Garland – Lockwood – Dries5:39
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Studnicka7:59
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes6:10
xG 0.53–0.37 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dermott – Bear4:17
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson13:03
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).