Thu, Jan 5, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 020 | 211 | 240 |
| VGK | 313 | 112 | 16 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52VGKPhil KesselAssists: Paul Cotter, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:17VGKJack EichelAssists: Nicolas Roy, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:20VGKChandler StephensonPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 19:49VGKMark StoneAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 4:04PITTy SmithAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 12:05VGKPaul CotterAssists: Phil Kessel, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 18:30PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:39PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:23VGKPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:49VGKJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:33VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kapanen – Heinen10:28
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:47
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Blueger – McGinn – O'Connor7:49
xG 0.02–0.15 (11%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell12:16
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Joseph14:20
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Rutta15:35
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
- Dumoulin – Smith16:44
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Karlsson – Cotter10:20
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Amadio11:54
xG 0.12–0.10 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Eichel – Roy12:54
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Leschyshyn7:31
xG 0.03–0.44 (6%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague18:32
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- McNabb – Korczak14:42
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Hutton – Pachal13:18
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).