Thu, Jan 5, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Boston Bruins 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 26 | 38 | 522 |
| LAK | 16 | 115 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:04LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Alex Iafallo, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:26BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:47BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:08LAKSean DurziAssists: Matt Roy, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 10:36BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:10BOSTrent FredericAssists: Nick Foligno, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 17:33BOSDavid PastrnakENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:09BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:41LAKBlake Lizotte: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:31BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:26
xG 0.57–0.58 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Smith – Nosek – Greer6:25
xG 0.14–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic11:12
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Krejci – Hall – Zacha13:12
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo14:35
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:00
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Clifton3:30
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo14:49
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield14:02
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Lemieux – Anderson-Dolan – Kupari6:10
xG 0.00–0.09 (2%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fiala – Vilardi – Lizotte13:39
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson20:31
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Roy – Durzi15:48
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Doughty – Durzi2:56
xG 0.02–0.15 (11%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).