Fri, Jan 6, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 213 | 220 | 08 | 00 | 441 |
| ANA | 210 | 19 | 19 | 11 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38SJSMatt NietoAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:03SJSSteven LorentzAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jonah Gadjovich · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 6:38ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: John Klingberg, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 14:15ANARyan StromeAssists: Mason McTavish, Colton White · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:16SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 13:06ANAMason McTavishAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Simon Benoit · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 13:20SJSTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Labanc, Matt Benning · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 13:13ANAMason McTavishAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 1:08ANAJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Troy Terry, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:14SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:09SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 10:37SJSSteven Lorentz: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:44ANATroy Terry: Interference2 min
- P1 14:45ANASam Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:13SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Meier13:03
xG 2.18–0.44 (83%)attempts 28–11goals 2–0
- Bonino – Svechnikov – Sturm8:38
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich7:09
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov10:48
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna13:18
xG 1.91–0.25 (88%)attempts 23–7goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Benning11:11
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Harrington – Ferraro16:13
xG 1.30–1.39 (48%)attempts 15–29goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Terry – Zegras2:28
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Megna – Kirkland – Leason7:27
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Comtois8:51
xG 0.25–0.86 (23%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras13:02
xG 0.78–1.49 (34%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Klingberg8:07
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- White – Vaakanainen10:27
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Benoit5:57
xG 0.12–0.38 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).