Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 213 | 011 | 01 | 334 |
| NJD | 019 | 114 | 26 | 14 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:28NYRJulien GauthierAssists: Adam Fox, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 9:24NJDJack HughesUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 13:15NYRChris KreiderAssists: K'Andre Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 8:28NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 10:32NJDJack HughesAssists: Dawson Mercer, Ryan Graves · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:47NJDDamon SeversonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:43NYRBraden Schneider: Interference2 min
- P1 17:16NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52NJDMiles Wood: Interference2 min
- P3 5:47NJDDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:57NYRKaapo Kakko: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:42NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko14:10
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Vesey – Chytil – Lafrenière10:55
xG 0.72–0.65 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Gauthier6:58
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Kravtsov11:39
xG 0.56–0.70 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Lindgren2:44
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller3:51
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:06
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Haula – Hughes8:45
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Mercer9:44
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 18–3goals 0–1
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer2:23
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier2:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Okhotiuk8:07
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Siegenthaler2:49
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler2:55
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).