Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 321 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 342 |
| CBJ | 07 | 27 | 14 | 00 | 3 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:26CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Marcus Bjork · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:02CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Emil Bemstrom · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 11:20CARMax PaciorettyAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:18CARBrady SkjeiPPAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:56CARMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 5:23CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
- 2. CAR Brent Burns stopped
- 3. CBJ Patrik Laine scored
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 5. CBJ Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 6. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 7. CBJ Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 8. CAR Max Pacioretty stopped
- 9. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 10. CAR Martin Necas stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:10CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:48CARBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:29CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45CBJSean Kuraly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:55CARSeth Jarvis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:13CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:13CBJCarson Meyer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:13CARMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:18CBJPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:47CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:05CBJSean Kuraly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Aho – Jarvis10:05
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov12:13
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Stepan – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi5:03
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:38
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Coghlan10:26
xG 0.65–0.05 (93%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:50
xG 0.88–0.40 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin13:52
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Meyer – Marchenko – Sillinger7:33
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Foudy11:09
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Laine8:32
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Bemstrom – Johnson8:11
xG 0.22–0.55 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bayreuther – Bjork8:43
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Berni14:42
xG 0.13–0.70 (16%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke14:41
xG 0.41–1.11 (27%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).