Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 015 | 011 | 218 | 12 | 346 |
| EDM | 17 | 112 | 010 | 01 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:37EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 15:03EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P3 3:06COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:19COLBrad HuntAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 2:09COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Alexandar Georgiev · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:27COLMartin Kaut: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:34EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 14:47COLAlex Newhook: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36EDMZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:09COLSamuel Girard: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03COLMartin Kaut: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:50COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43EDMKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P3 7:27EDMZach Hyman: Embellishment2 min
- P3 13:11EDMLeon Draisaitl: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues10:12
xG 1.52–0.23 (87%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Newhook6:55
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues2:02
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor3:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:10
xG 1.60–0.24 (87%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard3:13
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard7:36
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:12
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway3:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Yamamoto2:23
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Janmark – Puljujarvi – McLeod3:55
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard3:26
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Broberg4:21
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak7:15
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).