Sat, Jan 7, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Boston Bruins 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 110 | 17 | 429 |
| SJS | 16 | 19 | 015 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:32BOSCraig SmithAssists: Nick Foligno, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 6:57SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:55SJSMario FerraroAssists: Matt Benning, Matt Nieto · Tip-in, 0.00 xG2–2
- P2 16:45BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 9:00BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:42BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:49BOSCraig Smith: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 12:40BOSBrandon Carlo: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:48SJSMatt Benning: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:48SJSJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23SJSScott Harrington: Interference2 min
- P3 13:12BOSNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:22
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Smith – Coyle2:41
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Krejci – Hall – Zacha6:00
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Nosek – Frederic2:46
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – McAvoy4:30
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo11:26
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:38
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Barabanov2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich7:22
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov7:12
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier11:29
xG 0.57–0.69 (45%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna16:41
xG 1.07–0.64 (63%)attempts 27–15goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Harrington9:21
xG 0.06–0.31 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Benning – Ferraro8:54
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).