Sun, Jan 8, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 015 | 110 | 03 | 128 |
| DAL | 18 | 215 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 10:03DALNils LundkvistPPGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 12:35FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:14DALEsa LindellAssists: Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:21DALJason RobertsonAssists: Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 15:49DALMiro HeiskanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:49DALColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37DALTy Dellandrea: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:06FLAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:58DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:57DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:13FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk11:07
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Cousins – Lundell2:36
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Lomberg – Smith5:01
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bennett – Luostarinen9:41
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura10:58
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling14:31
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Staal – Montour13:27
xG 0.56–0.91 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Seguin – Robertson5:31
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston2:00
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta3:29
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Marchment – Johnston9:30
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen13:59
xG 1.17–0.57 (67%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:32
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Suter – Lundkvist13:09
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).