Sun, Jan 8, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 118 | 216 | 011 | 02 | 347 |
| CHI | 210 | 14 | 010 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39CHILukas ReichelAssists: Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:49CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 10:10CHIColin BlackwellAssists: Sam Lafferty, Reese Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 0:35CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Lukas Reichel, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 1:02CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 9:40CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 1:04CHIMax DomiGWGAssists: Lukas Reichel, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:36CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30CHIJake McCabe: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:30CGYMichael Stone: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:31CHIIan Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:44CGYDillon Dube: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:44CGYDillon Dube: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:44CHIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23CHISeth Jones: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:49
xG 0.88–0.06 (93%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau12:37
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Lewis – Ruzicka – Zohorna5:55
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube11:04
xG 0.31–0.75 (29%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar18:52
xG 1.31–0.37 (78%)attempts 27–15goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Andersson3:25
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson17:17
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Dickinson – Seney9:56
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Domi – Kurashev – Reichel14:23
xG 1.15–1.04 (53%)attempts 18–21goals 2–0
- Blackwell – Lafferty – Johnson7:01
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Toews – Johnson – Raddysh13:18
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones2:10
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones17:48
xG 1.10–0.98 (53%)attempts 19–19goals 2–0
- Murphy – Jones3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).