Sun, Jan 8, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 06 | 24 | 324 |
| MIN | 09 | 03 | 023 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17STLBrandon SaadPPGWGAssists: Jake Neighbours, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 14:00STLBrayden SchennAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 19:54STLBrayden SchennENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:22MINMason Shaw: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 6:06STLRobert Thomas: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:35MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P3 1:34MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:48STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:05STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas9:53
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Barbashev10:36
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:14
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko3:09
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Rosen2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Santini – Rosen5:45
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker12:38
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Foligno – Eriksson Ek5:43
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Steel – Boldy11:36
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Duhaime3:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:14
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison9:58
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton8:22
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).