Mon, Jan 9, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 114 | 19 | 331 |
| LAK | 218 | 215 | 25 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:11LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 17:02EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:51LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 11:38LAKAdrian KempePPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.53 xG1–4
- P2 16:36EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 7:44LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 9:26EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 18:18LAKViktor ArvidssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–6
Penalties (22)
- P1 3:48LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:25EDMTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P1 19:19EDMKailer Yamamoto: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:33LAKPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:14EDMKlim Kostin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:31EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:47LAKBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:35LAKPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:35LAKPhillip Danault: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:35EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P2 15:35EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:20LAKAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:27LAKSean Durzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:27EDMZach Hyman: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:10EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P3 13:56LAKQuinton Byfield: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:23LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:23EDMKlim Kostin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:23EDMKlim Kostin: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McLeod7:26
xG 0.94–0.27 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- McDavid – Yamamoto – Kostin4:21
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Ryan – Puljujarvi – Holloway3:07
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Foegele4:13
xG 0.07–0.36 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg9:42
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Barrie – Kulak10:12
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse10:51
xG 0.38–0.98 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo8:37
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Fiala – Vilardi – Lizotte6:57
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Arvidsson – Iafallo – Lizotte2:06
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield5:04
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson13:54
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
- Roy – Durzi10:13
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Edler – Walker10:29
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).