Tue, Jan 10, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 28 | 28 | 523 |
| CAR | 114 | 210 | 04 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03CARJesperi KotkaniemiSHAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:06NJDJonas SiegenthalerAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:50CARMax PaciorettyAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 17:34CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.39 xG1–3
- P2 19:08NJDDawson MercerAssists: Damon Severson, Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 19:26NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Dawson Mercer, Michael McLeod · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:53NJDDawson MercerGWGAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Michael McLeod · Snap, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 19:04NJDNico HischierENAssists: Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula · Other, 0.79 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:08CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P1 12:12CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 14:49NJDTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:38NJDRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:07CARSeth Jarvis: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:17NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:59CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Boqvist – Mercer4:52
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 3–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier9:09
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Wood – Zetterlund – Sharangovich2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Haula – Hughes10:19
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Graves – Okhotiuk3:13
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Okhotiuk3:11
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Graves2:15
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Necas – Svechnikov8:07
xG 1.21–0.36 (77%)attempts 21–2goals 0–1
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi3:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Aho – Jarvis12:11
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov2:48
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Coghlan10:55
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 19–4goals 1–3
- Skjei – Pesce18:01
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:42
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).