Tue, Jan 10, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Seattle Kraken 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 17 | 17 | 28 | 422 |
| BUF | 17 | 110 | 118 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 18:52SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:12BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:59SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Justin Schultz, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:06SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky · Poke, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 5:17SEAJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:38BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:38SEACarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P1 18:45BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:57SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:07SEAAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09SEABrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:09BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:15SEAYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:30
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie5:45
xG 0.43–0.23 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers9:43
xG 0.77–0.78 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – McCann9:01
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak13:52
xG 0.96–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:11
xG 0.73–0.72 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Soucy – Borgen11:58
xG 0.85–0.89 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson11:36
xG 0.92–0.29 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt10:04
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs8:24
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Hinostroza – Asplund – Cozens9:30
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin2:11
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Clague – Lyubushkin7:38
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power2:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).