Tue, Jan 10, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vancouver Canucks 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 310 | 05 | 19 | 424 |
| PIT | 320 | 27 | 09 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46VANConor GarlandAssists: Quinn Hughes, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 6:40VANBrock BoeserAssists: Bo Horvat, Ilya Mikheyev · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 7:05VANQuinn HughesAssists: Luke Schenn, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P1 8:57PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Ty Smith, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P1 14:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Bryan Rust · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P1 16:30PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 7:58PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P2 14:31PITRickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ty Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 12:52VANTravis DermottAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:53VANCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:51VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:59PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:15PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:21VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:02VANCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:32PITDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:56PITBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:42VANDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:53VANSheldon Dries: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Miller – Pettersson – Kuzmenko6:30
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Horvat – Boeser – Mikheyev6:43
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Garland – Lockwood – Dries3:05
xG 0.01–0.25 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Lazar – Joshua – Studnicka8:14
xG 0.26–0.51 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Bear2:02
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Dermott3:05
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dermott – Bear6:40
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel9:01
xG 0.94–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell8:09
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Carter – Kapanen – O'Connor5:56
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen5:50
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Smith11:07
xG 1.41–0.11 (93%)attempts 25–5goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph6:48
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:20
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).