Tue, Jan 10, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Dallas Stars 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 09 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 226 |
| NYI | 110 | 06 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 13:39NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 5. DAL Denis Gurianov stopped
- 6. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:07DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:49DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:04DALJoe Pavelski: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:51NYICal Clutterbuck: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Marchment – Johnston10:47
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Seguin – Robertson13:51
xG 1.00–0.96 (51%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Faksa – Dellandrea – Kiviranta2:25
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:10
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist13:58
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen15:01
xG 0.47–0.85 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:49
xG 0.55–0.94 (37%)attempts 7–24goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:22
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching9:48
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Barzal – Holmstrom11:17
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:40
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson14:44
xG 1.08–0.17 (86%)attempts 28–8goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov17:00
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho3:45
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).