Wed, Jan 11, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 6, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 417 | 220 | 016 | 653 |
| ANA | 18 | 09 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24EDMDylan HollowayAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 4:38EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Philip Broberg, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 8:52ANASam CarrickAssists: Maxime Comtois · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 10:23EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 19:02EDMKlim KostinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 7:41EDMKlim KostinAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.11 xG5–1
- P2 18:44EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard · Between legs, 0.11 xG6–1
- P3 0:48ANASimon BenoitAssists: Brett Leason, Maxime Comtois · Slap, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:50EDMVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P1 15:35ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:16EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:38ANATrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:07ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:53EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:09
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- McDavid – Yamamoto – Holloway8:05
xG 0.76–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McLeod6:38
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Kostin9:16
xG 0.55–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouchard – Broberg7:04
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–1goals 1–1
- Desharnais – Broberg3:49
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nurse – Desharnais5:30
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Carrick – Comtois – Leason2:58
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish8:33
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Comtois9:27
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Megna – Jones – Leason9:28
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg2:18
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Vaakanainen12:24
xG 0.67–0.79 (46%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Benoit14:26
xG 0.25–1.25 (17%)attempts 5–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).