Thu, Jan 12, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 112 | 317 | 641 |
| CBJ | 112 | 05 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34CARBrett PesceAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:39CARBrent BurnsAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 15:00CBJSean KuralyAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Gavin Bayreuther · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:52CARJalen ChatfieldSHGWGAssists: Jesper Fast · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 8:02CARBrett PesceAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 14:55CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 15:27CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Patrik Laine, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 16:45CARSeth JarvisAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:09CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:32CBJPatrik Laine: Interference2 min
- P2 7:37CBJKirill Marchenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:53CARMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:12CBJNick Blankenburg: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:38CBJKent Johnson: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 10:13CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:48CBJErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:48CARStefan Noesen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis2:45
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:34
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov9:39
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi3:09
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:04
xG 1.20–0.49 (71%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- de Haan – Chatfield11:53
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin13:57
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Roslovic – Laine13:24
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bemstrom – Johnson6:08
xG 0.14–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Marchenko – Sillinger2:15
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Marchenko – Sillinger2:07
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoqvist – Berni5:41
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke11:52
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Bayreuther2:36
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).