Thu, Jan 12, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 016 | 112 | 312 | 440 |
| STL | 012 | 09 | 15 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:24CGYWalker DuehrAssists: Nazem Kadri, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 0:20STLJake NeighboursAssists: Noel Acciari, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 10:50CGYDillon DubeGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 16:04CGYBlake ColemanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 16:39CGYDillon DubeENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:14CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:29CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P2 2:27STLNiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P2 17:00CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:51
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:21
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau11:26
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Ruzicka – Duehr7:42
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar13:52
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson16:44
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Stone – Zadorov14:10
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Acciari – Neighbours4:40
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko3:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Leivo – Saad5:19
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Acciari – Neighbours3:51
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Tucker9:46
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Faulk – Rosen6:06
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Santini – Rosen7:48
xG 0.12–0.40 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).