Thu, Jan 12, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 19 | 013 | 233 |
| CHI | 17 | 114 | 19 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24CHISam LaffertyAssists: Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:40COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:44CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Isaak Phillips, Petr Mrazek · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 11:47COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:36CHITaylor RaddyshGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:01CHIReese Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:14CHIAndreas Athanasiou: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:52COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:52COLBrad Hunt: Interference2 min
- P2 13:16COLBen Meyers: Holding2 min
- P2 15:54CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:17CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues10:45
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Newhook8:44
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:15
xG 0.85–0.47 (64%)attempts 21–8goals 2–1
- Johnson – Girard10:53
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Lafferty – Johnson4:46
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Entwistle7:58
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
- Domi – Kurashev – Reichel7:42
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Toews – Johnson – Raddysh10:30
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Phillips9:42
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Murphy13:56
xG 0.47–1.10 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- McCabe – Jones14:16
xG 0.23–1.01 (18%)attempts 7–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).